Recast MMM alternatives for Amazon brands

Spillmark runs geo holdout tests for Meta ads and measures Amazon orders by ship-to state. It plans the test from your own Amazon order history, picks a group of US states whose past sales track the rest, runs a placebo check, tells you how long the test needs and shows the expected cost before you pause anything.

$19 a month gets the dashboard. Holdout tests start on Starter at $49 a month. Cancel anytime. Read-only, and nothing changes without your approval. Use the Get started button under the introduction.

Against Recast, you give up a Bayesian media mix model, forecasts, budget scenarios and a team of Operators. You keep one question: did these Meta ads cause enough Amazon orders? Recast's own description of the wider stack is in the sections after this one.

The method is on how lift is calculated. Size a test with the holdout test calculator before you pause ads.

Recast's homepage, as of October 2026, positions it as marketing measurement software built around a proprietary Bayesian media mix model. Public copy on getrecast.com highlights:

• Bayesian MMM to estimate channel effects and carryover from historical spend and sales.
• GeoLift design and analysis so geo experiments inform the model.
• Forecasts and budget optimization to explore scenarios before you commit spend.
• APIs and MCP so results can feed internal tools and agents.
• SOC 2 and a Meta Measurement Partner badge on the homepage.
• Team configuration with certified Operators, alongside claims of a PhD-heavy measurement team.

Recast's process page on getrecast.com describes how Operators work with your team to configure the model and interpret outputs.

Recast ties experiments to modeling: GeoLift-style tests supply causal reads that a Bayesian MMM can use instead of trusting platform reports alone. That mirrors the pattern in marketing mix modeling vs. incrementality testing: models need long histories and varied spend; tests prove cause for one change at a time.

Open-source options exist if you only need pieces. Meta's GeoLift package designs and analyzes geo experiments. Robyn and Meridian are open-source MMM frameworks if you later want a model calibrated by your own tests. Recast sells the integrated product, Operators and enterprise workflow around those ideas.

Neither row replaces the other. A holdout answers whether today's Meta spend pays on Amazon. An MMM program answers how to shift budget across a portfolio once you trust the model and feed it experiments.

• Run GeoLift yourself. Export Amazon orders by state, design a test in R with Meta's open-source package, and read lift with difference-in-differences. More time, no vendor contract.
• Use another incrementality vendor. Haus and Measured describe geo experiments and MMM for larger portfolios. See the Haus and Measured guides for what each says on its own site.
• Open-source MMM only. If you already have years of weekly spend and sales, Robyn or Meridian may be enough, calibrated with occasional holdouts. The MMM software guide lists requirements.
• Geo holdout on Meta and Amazon only. That's the first section on this page: one test, no media mix model.

Recast's public pages emphasize cross-channel measurement infrastructure rather than a single Amazon–Meta playbook. Any MMM or geo test still needs a sales outcome you trust. For Amazon brands, that usually means ship-to orders, not platform pixels. A holdout test on Amazon orders answers incrementality even when Meta cannot see checkouts; an MMM adds value when Amazon is one line in a multi-channel sales series you feed the model.

Stay with Recast if you want MMM, forecasts and Operators in one vendor, and you can ask for a price. Use the holdout when the only open question is Meta ads on Amazon. Haus and Measured are the other experiment vendors in the shortlist. Triple Whale starts from attribution instead.