Overview
Am I making money, where, and what should I do next?
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Example Coffee Co.When each source last synced
Amazon fees are estimates until orders settle (about 14 days).
Amazon Ads attributes purchases up to 7 days after a click, so the last week can still rise.
Amazon Attribution keeps adding purchases to each day for 14 days.
Meta revises the last few days of results as delayed conversions arrive.
Am I making money, where, and what should I do next?
Month to date and the three months before, each against the month before it
Oct 12 – Oct 18 vs the 7 days before
Place a reorder now and consider lowering Meta by about $14.99/day on ads that drive this product until stock lands.
Check sample-to-full-bag conversion in Cohorts before cutting it.
Trim daily budgets so the month lands on budget.
Contribution margin by where the sale happened and what drove it · Oct 12 – Oct 18
| Channel | Revenue | Refunds | Fees & fulfillment | COGS | Ad spend | Contribution margin | New customers | CAC | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $6,204 | $43.99 | $1,879 | $2,502 | $232 | $1,547 | 78 | $2.98 | Profitable |
| Meta → AmazonMeasured: Too early to call | — | — | — | — | $325 | — | — | — | See measured lift |
| Meta → Shopify | $343 | $9.99 | $140 | $113 | $189 | −$109 | 25 | $7.54 | Losing money |
| Shopify other | $1,723 | $54.99 | $270 | $631 | $0.00 | $768 | 10 | — | Profitable |
| Total | $8,269 | $109 | $2,289 | $3,245 | $746 | $1,880 | 113 | $6.60 | Profitable |
Amazon PPC and Meta → Amazon sales are inside the Amazon row. Needs Amazon's written approval to combine Amazon Ads and Meta data (Amazon Ads policy 4.9).
Revenue, contribution margin and ad spend · Oct 12 – Oct 18
| Day | Revenue | Contribution margin | Ad spend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | $1,578 | $424 | $105 |
| Oct 13 | $901 | $65.43 | $106 |
| Oct 14 | $1,088 | $302 | $107 |
| Oct 15 | $1,139 | $215 | $108 |
| Oct 16 | $755 | $137 | $105 |
| Oct 17 | $1,247 | $352 | $107 |
| Oct 18 | $1,563 | $385 | $108 |
Mar 1 – Sep 30 · updated Oct 25
Each extra $100 a day on Meta → Amazon adds about 4.6 Amazon orders a day (likely 1.9–7.3). Break-even is 5.7 at $17.40 contribution per order.
Too uncertain to call: the likely range spans break-even. First orders only; the incremental CAC below counts repeat purchases through LTV.
Method: State-by-day panel regression of Amazon orders on Meta→Amazon spend, with state and day fixed effects and standard errors clustered by state.
About $43.06 of Meta spend per customer the ads actually added (likely $23.68–$237). Their 90-day LTV of $19.46 makes that 0.5:1 (likely 0.1–0.8).
$38.00 a day of Meta spend ÷ 0.9 new customers a day: 0.9 Amazon (estimated: extra orders × 80% from new customers). Blended CAC counts everyone who bought for the first time; this counts only the customers the ads caused.
Track record: no predictions scored yet; the first is due Nov 1.
Up+3.1%vs same days last month ($27,014)
Down−14.5%vs August 2026 ($37,865)
Up+21.2%vs July 2026 ($31,253)
Up+3.6%vs June 2026 ($30,180)